Model could help predict how Atlantic Forest species respond to climate changes

Researchers from Brazil and the US try to understand the evolutionary, geological, climatic and genetic processes behind current patterns of biodiversity.

By Karina Toledo

Agência FAPESP – Understanding the evolutionary, geological, climatic and genetic processes behind the enormous biodiversity and species distribution patterns of the Atlantic Forest is important. With this knowledge, it will be able to establish models that allow us to predict how species will react to changes in climate and soil use.

Developing such models is the main objective of the project entitled "Dimensions US-BIOTA São Paulo: a multidisciplinary framework for biodiversity prediction in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot," which is bringing together scientists from Brazil and the United States. The project is being carried out under the scientific cooperation agreement between the Research Program in Characterization, Conservation, Restoration and Sustainable Use of Biodiversity of the state of São Paulo (BIOTA-FAPESP) and the Dimensions of Biodiversity program of the National Science Foundation (NSF), the US federal research-sponsoring agency.

“Besides helping predict what could happen to species in the future, the models are helping us understand how biodiversity is distributed today in areas where scientists have no access. Because we gather information by collecting samples, it would be impossible to map all microenvironments. The models allow us to extrapolate this information to areas that have not been sampled, and they may be used at any time,” explained Ana Carolina Carnaval, professor at the City University of New York (CUNY) in the US and coordinator of the study, along with Cristina Miyaki of the Biosciences Institute at the University of São Paulo (IB-USP).

According to Carnaval, the proposal promotes the integration of researchers from a variety of fields – such as ecology, geology, biogeography, genetics, physiology, climatology, taxonomy, paleology, and geomorphology – and combines basic and applied science to benefit Atlantic Forest conservation.

The biome is considered to be one of 34 global biodiversity hotspots; in other words, it is a global conservation priority because of its enormous biodiversity, the high degree of endemism (occurrence in only that location) of its species, and the grave threat of extinction that is the result of intensive anthropic activity in the area.

The undertaking coordinated by Carnaval and Miyaki began in the second half of 2013. The network of researchers met for the first time to present their lines of research and preliminary findings on Monday 02/10 during the “Workshop Dimensions US-BIOTA São Paulo - A multidisciplinary framework for biodiversity prediction in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest Hotspot.”

“We had invited some colleagues in addition to the researchers already involved in the project because we wanted them to provide a critique and offer suggestions that would allow us to improve our work,” said Miyaki. “The meeting serves as a framework for the effective integration of the various project areas and for the creation of a unique language focused on understanding the Atlantic Forest and the processes that make this biome so special,” she added.

Among the mysteries the scientists will try to uncover is the origin of the Atlantic Forest’s incredible diversity, which is possibly the result of connections to other biomes, including the Amazon Forest, dating back millions of years. Another fundamental issue is understanding the importance of the current and historical moisture transport system in the region and how this system allows the Atlantic Forest to communicate with other forest systems. The group would also like to investigate how tectonic activity has influenced the flow of rivers and affected the aquatic species distribution pattern.

Challenges for BIOTA

During the workshop’s opening session, FAPESP President Celso Lafer highlighted the importance of innovative and multidisciplinary approaches designed to protect Atlantic Forest biodiversity. He further underscored the fact that the initiative is in line with the internationalization efforts that have been carried out by FAPESP in recent years.

“One of the main concerns of FAPESP has been the process of internationalization, which is basically related to the effort to bring together researchers from various fields for the advancement of knowledge. Today’s program is related to aspirations of this nature, and I’m sure that the outcome will be highly significant,” Lafer stated.

Also during the opening session, Carlos Eduardo Falavigna da Rocha, director of the USP Biosciences Institute (IB-USP), stated that the BIOTA-FAPESP program has served as a shining example for other states and other research-sponsoring foundations at the state and federal levels.

Carlos Alfredo Joly, professor at the University of Campinas (Unicamp) and BIOTA-FAPESP coordinator, presented a historical overview of the program’s activities since 1999, chief among which was the design of a map of global conservation priorities that has served as the basis of over 20 state legal documents – including laws, decrees and resolutions.

Joly also spoke about the challenges to be met by 2020, such as undertaking efforts to restore and reintroduce species, to extend what is known about terrestrial ecosystems and the mechanisms that maintain Brazil’s biodiversity and to strengthen activities that focus on environmental education.

For 2014, Joly emphasized two challenges in the area of conservation. “We’re starting a campaign to preserve the Mantiqueira Mountains. We’ve already written several newspaper articles, we’re launching a website specifically for this purpose, and we’re aiming to preserve regions above 800 meters, areas indicated as extreme global conservation priorities on the BIOTA atlas,” he said.

Another 2014 goal, according to Joly, is to press Brazil to ratify the Nagoya Protocol – the international treaty that provides for the equitable sharing of the benefits arising from biodiversity use – by October, which is the month scheduled for the 12th Meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity.

“It is essential that a megadiverse country that is interested in having its biodiversity protected by this international protocol becomes a signatory to the protocol before this meeting,” Joly stated.