Climate change in Brazil could lead to financial losses and poverty

The executive summary of the Brazilian Panel on Climate Change was released in Rio de Janeiro.

By Fred Furtado, Rio de Janeiro

Agência FAPESP – More intense droughts, agricultural losses, reduced fishing yields, reformulation of the energy grid – these are some of the impacts that climate change will generate in Brazil. The people most affected will be Brazilians from lower economic classes.

This is the scenario described in the executive summary of the Work Group 2 (WG2) of the Brazilian Panel on Climate Change (PBMC), released on October 25 at the Brazilian Foundation for Sustainable Development in Rio de Janeiro. The document covers the impact of climate change on natural and socioeconomic systems, in addition to options for adapting to the new scenario.

“This report shows that the impacts are already happening and that decisions must be made immediately. The longer the wait, the greater the problem, and the more expensive it will be to deal with,” explained Suzana Kahn, a researcher at the Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) and the president of the PBMC scientific committee.

The report also provides information for Brazilian public officials to use in planning their responses to climate change to reduce the impact and the costs and ensure social inclusion. “Those who always suffer the most and have less of a chance to adapt are the poor,” she declared.

The first executive summary of the PBMC’s National Assessment was released in São Paulo on August 6 during the 1st National Conference on Climate Change (read more at http://agencia.fapesp.br/en/18009).

Water resources

Water is a key factor in the impact of climate change. According to the summary released in October, changes in waterfall patterns will lead to more frequent and intense droughts and floods, with probable impacts on groundwater recharge.

The discharge rates of rivers will also be impacted by these changes. In western Amazonia and the northeast of Brazil, the losses could reach 20%, and the loss for the Tocantins River basin could be as much as 30%. In Paraná-Prata, the expectation is for an increase of 10% to 40%.

“It is a very serious problem. According to the National Water Agency, more than 2,000 municipalities will have a water supply problem in 2015,” warns Eduardo Assad, a researcher at the Brazilian Agriculture and Livestock Research Corporation (Embrapa) and the coordinator of WG2.

In coastal areas, increased sea levels could intensify flooding and erosion processes. Furthermore, increases in temperature and acidification of oceans could have a negative impact on marine ecosystems and fishing.

“We could have 6% losses in fishing yield volume on average. Imagine how many families of fisheries will be impacted,” Assad noted. The study also forecasts a loss of biodiversity in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, leading to the disappearance or fragmentation of habitats.

Agriculture and energy

Agricultural activity tends to be directly impacted by climate change. With increases in temperatures and reductions in water quantity, low-risk agricultural areas will become high-risk areas, losing value and forcing the local rural population to migrate to urban centers.

“In Ceará, for example, this could lead to a 60% reduction in the gross agricultural product and the value of land,” Assad said.

Another problem is the effect of infestations and diseases that attack crops. High temperatures and humidity are ideal conditions for the spread of fungi.

The energy sector could be affected by climate change in several ways. According to Assad, the energy grid must be expanded because there will be problems with hydroelectric energy generation due to alterations in the water supply.

Creation of new, cleaner energy alternatives is still limited, although there is demand for energy from sources such as shale gas and coal-fired thermoelectric plants. “Where are the incentives for solar, wind and ocean energy? We keep insisting on the vanguard of energetic conservatism,” he noted.

Cities and health

Cities will also be significantly affected by some of the phenomena, such as landslides and flooding caused by deficiencies in urban drainage.

“I don’t need to remind anyone about what will happen in January and February in Rio de Janeiro and Salvador. Nothing has been done in the last few years to resolve the problem,” criticizes Assad.

According to the report, transportation modes used in the country are far from adequate, particularly in urban areas. Changing them, especially methods of cargo transport, would greatly enhance Brazil’s ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

With respect to human health, the country is extremely vulnerable to heat and cold waves, which could cause higher mortality rates. Extreme heat could create ideal conditions for the proliferation of tropical disease vectors such as mosquitoes, leading to a higher incidence of dengue fever and other diseases.

Assad notes that reducing water-related problems and reducing subsistence and poverty are equally critical. “These are priority actions that Brazil has to attack. To this end, government, industry, commerce and society must be involved in developing an appropriate national response.”