Brazilian challenges to meet targets for reduction in greenhouse gas emissions

Following the approval of a new global climate agreement, countries must create the political, economic, scientific and technological conditions to implement INDCs.

By Elton Alisson, in Paris  |  Agência FAPESP – Following the approval of a new global agreement to combat the effects of climate change on December 12, at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, the 188 countries that are signatories to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and that have submitted voluntary targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions (intended nationally determined contributions, or INDCs) now face the challenge of implementing these targets by 2020, when the new agreement enters into force.

Countries must overcome a number of obstacles and, above all, create the requisite political, economic, scientific and technological conditions if the targets are to be achieved.

For Brazil, which submitted one of the most ambitious INDCs and took the largest delegation to the 195-nation conference, the challenges also include establishing a funding strategy to make implementation feasible, given that its INDC is not contingent on overseas aid or financing.

This is the view expressed by Izabella Teixeira, Brazil’s Environment Minister, during a COP21 side event at which post-2020 Brazilian policies on climate change were discussed. The meeting took place at the Le Bourget convention center on December 11, a day before the Paris Agreement was adopted.

“We must agree on a technological development strategy to enable Brazil to implement its INDC and address challenges, such as restoring 12 million hectares at a competitive cost, eradicating the illegal timber trade, and halting deforestation nationwide,” Teixeira said.

Another hurdle, she went on, is the need to build Brazil’s scientific capacity in order to establish a permanent system for reliable monitoring of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

“The data we disclose will have to meet the highest technical and scientific standards because it will be audited. The INDC is a formal commitment by a party to the UNFCCC, and we need to be sure we can meet the criteria, the requirements. It’s also crucial that we prioritize capacity building as we prepare for the challenges ahead,” Teixeira said.

Another issue that will have to be resolved in order to implement the INDCs – not just Brazil’s, but also those of all other countries – is the relationship between national and subnational actors, she went on.

In the traditional relationship, still prevalent six years ago at COP15 in Copenhagen, state governments announce more ambitious targets for reductions in GHG emissions than their own national government does. This created huge difficulties in the past because it was hard to reconcile subnational and national targets.

“The relationship between national and subnational actors has to change,” Teixeira said. “It must be a relationship in which all parties put forward objectives transparently and implement actions to cut GHG emissions that aren’t contingent on the existence of funding. After all, Brazil’s INDC doesn’t depend on the availability of finances.”

Periodic reviews

The Paris Agreement, approved by 195 countries at COP21, is considered the most comprehensive global climate pact since the Kyoto Protocol, signed in 1997.

The resolution that adopted it “notes with concern” that estimated GHG emission levels in 2025 and 2030 resulting from the INDCs announced so far by 188 countries “do not fall within least-cost 2°C scenarios, but rather lead to a projected level of 55 gigatonnes in 2030.”

It also notes that much greater efforts to cut emissions will be required to ensure that the global average temperature rises less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. This would entail reducing emissions to 40 gigatonnes (Gt).

Global emissions of CO₂ currently amount to some 49 Gt, with agriculture, forestry and other land use accounting for 24% and energy, industry and transportation for 76%.

“A global aspiration to reduce CO₂ emissions isn’t enough. The goals must be national,” Teixeira said.

The Paris Agreement also establishes the principle that future INDCs will have to be progressively more ambitious.

Countries are to communicate INDCs every five years, consistently increasing their ambitions over the long term.

An initial “facilitative dialogue” to gauge progress toward implementation of INDCs is scheduled for 2018, and the first detailed “global stocktake” is scheduled for 2023.

“We have entered a new era of global cooperation on one of the most complex issues ever to confront humanity. For the first time, every country in the world has pledged to curb emissions, strengthen resilience, and join in common cause to take common climate action. This is a resounding success for multilateralism,” UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon told the assembled delegates during the final plenary of COP21.

Financing

The overriding priorities enshrined in the Paris Agreement, approved by 195 countries at COP21 and due to enter into force when it is ratified by 55 countries, are to keep global warming in this century “well below” 2°C and to “pursue efforts to limit” it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, which, according to article 2 of the agreement, “would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.”

This goal means that GHG emissions must peak as soon as possible, as laid out by article 4, which calls for a balance between emissions and removals in the second half of this century.

With regard to financing, the resolution strongly urged developed countries to “achieve the goal of jointly providing US$100 billion annually by 2020 for mitigation and adaptation” by developing countries.

“We have seen unparalleled announcements of financial support for both mitigation and adaptation from a multitude of sources both before and during the COP. Under the Paris Agreement, the provision of finances from multiple sources will clearly be taken to a new level, which is of critical importance to the most vulnerable,” said UNFCCC Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres.

Following its adoption by COP21, the Paris Agreement has to be ratified by the parties to the Convention. It will be open for signatures at the UN Headquarters in New York for a year starting on April 22, 2016, and will enter into force once at least 55 parties accounting for at least 55% of total GHG emissions have ratified it.