Researchers warn of the need for Brazil to turn promises into practical actions at COP30

In an article published in a scientific journal, the group emphasizes that Brazil must align its domestic policies with international commitments.

By Luciana Constantino, from Belém  |  Agência FAPESP – Amid the discussions at COP30, which is being held for the first time in the Amazon, in Belém in the state of Pará, Brazil, a group of Brazilian researchers is warning of the urgent need for Brazil to lead the way in turning promises into practical actions to combat global warming. As host of the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference, they argue that the country must align its domestic policies with international commitments, emphasizing forest conservation and climate justice.

The scientists emphasize the need to “reverse anti-environmental policies, enforce laws to combat deforestation, and strengthen sustainable development actors to turn promises into concrete actions through legislative reforms, the restoration of environmental licensing, and the protection of indigenous peoples’ rights.” The article was published on October 28 in the scientific journal International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics.

Eight researchers signed the article, including three from ARIES (the Antimicrobial Resistance Institute of São Paulo), a Research, Innovation, and Dissemination Center (RIDC) funded by FAPESP and based at the Federal University of São Paulo (UNIFESP). The other signatories are from the University of São Paulo (USP), the Federal University of Alagoas (UFAL), and the Sergio Arouca National School of Public Health (ENSP-FIOCRUZ).

“Brazil has to take advantage of all this international visibility to really put into action what it has committed to do, seeking to limit global warming. And even though it’s a global event, COP is an opportunity for us to bring national proposals, such as the Belém Health Action Plan,” biologist Daniela Debone, the article’s first author, told Agência FAPESP. Debone is a postdoctoral researcher at ARIES and is supported by a FAPESP scholarship. 

Brazil presented the action plan with the aim of strengthening the health sector’s adaptation and resilience in the face of climate change. The plan aims to achieve this goal by advancing integrated surveillance and monitoring systems and promoting evidence-based policies and innovation. It is part of the program for the thematic days of COP30, which included health on November 12 and 13.

The theme is one of the approaches of ARIES, which aims to produce research to understand the mechanisms and evolution of antimicrobial resistance, stimulating innovative mitigation measures and promoting changes in public health policies through a One Health approach. The core team consists of researchers from three São Paulo universities, as well as national and international experts from over 20 educational and research institutions.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is also linked to climate change and is considered by the United Nations to be one of the main threats to global public health.

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that climate change will be linked to around 250,000 deaths per year between 2030 and 2050 due to malnutrition, infectious diseases, and heat stress. On the other hand, AMR could be responsible for 10 million deaths per year during the same period, in addition to costing health systems USD 1 trillion more, according to the World Bank.

“We scientists have to translate research knowledge and findings for society, contributing to public policy. In this sense, we’re warning that we need to move beyond discourse. We’re relying on a critical mass generated by Brazilian science, which is very important, including researchers at the IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change], such as Professor Paulo Artaxo. We can show ways and give concrete examples of how to move towards more sustainable practices,” says Professor Simone Miraglia, from ARIES and head of the Laboratory of Economics, Health, and Environmental Pollution (LESPA) at UNIFESP. Miraglia and Artaxo also co-authored the paper.

An idea based on reality

According to Debone, the proposal for the article emerged in May when she started participating in a series of events organized by the UNIFESP Commission for COP30. 

That same month, the Brazilian Senate approved Bill 2,159/2021, also known as the General Environmental Licensing Law, which was subsequently passed by the Chamber of Deputies and, in August, sanctioned by the Executive Branch with 63 vetoes.

Viewed by some sectors as a way to weaken and undermine licensing rules and by others as a way to streamline the process of approving construction projects, the law is cited in the article. The researchers argue that it could “further aggravate land conflicts, sustain the misleading narrative of ‘green capitalism,’ and undermine the rights of traditional and indigenous peoples,” who are considered responsible for conserving the forest.

Additionally, the scientists point to the construction of a highway in Belém that cleared hectares of forest, the reconstruction of the 408-kilometer central section of the BR-319 highway between the state capitals of Manaus and Porto Velho that affects areas of the Amazon, and discussions about the timeline framework which impact the demarcation of indigenous lands, as anti-environmental measures.

This timeframe is a legal thesis that states indigenous peoples are only entitled to lands they occupied or were disputing on October 5, 1988, the date the Constitution was promulgated. This thesis was established by Law 14,701/2023, which was approved by the National Congress, despite the Federal Supreme Court’s (STF) previous stance.

The Executive vetoed the thesis and other articles, but deputies and senators rejected the vetoes and kept the text in its entirety. The law is under review again by the STF, which has not set a deadline for deciding whether it is unconstitutional.

Conversely, the scientists cite Brazil’s reduction in deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions as progress. Between August 2024 and July 2025, the deforestation rate in the Legal Amazon, an area covering nine Brazilian states where the Amazon biome occurs, reached the third-lowest level since 1988, at 5,796 km² – an 11% reduction.

Due to the decline in deforestation, Brazil recorded its lowest level of greenhouse gas emissions since 2009 in 2024, with a decrease of nearly 17% – 2.145 billion tons of CO₂ equivalent (GtCO₂e).

The Ministry of the Environment, which is involved in the COP discussions, did not comment when contacted through its press office.

“Climate change has been debated for a long time. Now everyone is waiting for feasible actions that will actually be carried out. I hope that this COP will serve as a turning point from a global perspective. That we’ll begin to see actions that change greenhouse gas emissions and the other factors causing these changes,” says Ronan Adler Tavella, a postdoctoral researcher at ARIES and author of the article, as well as a FAPESP scholarship recipient. 

Actual scenario

When it comes to addressing the climate emergency, the group points out that global temperatures have already risen by up to 1.6 °C compared to pre-industrial levels, with continental areas recording increases of up to 2.1 °C, “highlighting the acceleration of climate impacts and the critical need for immediate action.”

They write, “Brazil’s stated vision of a prosperous Amazonian bioeconomy, in which the standing forest is worth more than the felled forest, will only gain credibility if the country decisively breaks with the destructive models of the past.”

Tavella highlights a recent study he and Debone led, published in Anthropocene Science, to assess the short- and long-term effects of the extreme rains that devastated several municipalities in the state of Rio Grande do Sul in May 2024.

The results underscore the need to rethink flood management strategies, particularly in urban areas, by incorporating climate projections into planning, bolstering flood control infrastructure, and adopting nature-based solutions to boost resilience. 

“In addition to the rains in May, we saw countless other cases of floods and extreme events around the globe throughout last year. This is a reality that’s been intensifying. And it’ll be a constant concern for the whole world,” the researcher adds.

The article “Brazil’s climate leadership paradox: hosting COP30 amid domestic environmental rollbacks” can be read at link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10784-025-09700-1.